Starting January 21, 2026, Google will update its advertising policies, allowing— for the first time — the promotion of so-called Prediction Markets in the United States.
This marks a significant shift for a sector that has so far existed on the fringes of major digital platforms. However, the move comes with very strict conditions and a clear message: access will be granted only to fully federally regulated operators, unlike many unregulated online gambling or mobile casino platforms that remain excluded.
What Are Prediction Markets According to Google?
In an update published on January 5, 2026, Google defines Prediction Markets as platforms that allow users to quote or access “Exchange-Traded Event Contracts”—contracts tied to future events in economics, sports, or current affairs.
In essence, these are markets where contracts based on the outcome of an event are traded, using mechanisms closer to financial markets than to traditional betting models commonly seen in online sportsbooks or mobile casino ecosystems.
Who Is Eligible to Advertise?
The offer is far from universal. Eligibility is limited to two specific categories of entities:
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Operators authorized by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as Designated Contract Markets (DCMs), whose primary activity is the listing of event-based contracts (for example, platforms focused on economic or sports outcomes);
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Intermediaries licensed as brokers by the National Futures Association (NFA), providing access to third-party products listed on a compliant DCM.
As a result, unregulated operators, offshore platforms, and entities operating in regulatory gray areas—often associated with aggressive online casino or casinorewardsnow-style promotional models—are explicitly excluded.
Mandatory Certification and Compliance
Even operators holding federal licenses must complete an additional step: prior certification by Google. Without this approval, they will not be allowed to run ads targeting U.S. audiences.
Furthermore, Google clarifies that advertisements, products, and landing pages must comply not only with Google Ads policies, but also with all applicable local laws, financial regulations, and industry standards.
The Prediction Markets policy will be integrated into both the Financial Services and Gambling and Games sections of Google’s advertising rules, confirming the hybrid nature of these products—positioned somewhere between finance and gambling.
Google’s decision reflects the ongoing debate in the United States surrounding prediction markets, which are increasingly scrutinized by regulators for their informational and financial potential, as well as for consumer protection risks.
By allowing advertising exclusively for entities regulated by the CFTC and NFA, Google effectively acknowledges the legitimacy of the regulated model, while keeping platforms that lack strict oversight—whether traditional online gambling sites, mobile casino apps, or reward-driven portals like casinorewardsnow—outside the scope of major online advertising channels.
